Global Warming being blamed for increase in extreme weather

In contrast to my last post, I do think that human influence is playing a big part in increasing the magnitude and frequency as to which environmental hazards occur. This can be seen more in some places than in others. There have been many studies done to collect data on this exact topic. Peter Stott is a leading researcher in this field and was one of the leaders that conducted a study on the 2003 European heat wave that killed 40,000 people. They concluded that human emissions actually made that event twice as likely. A study was also done on the Russian heat wave that happened just last year. The results were published last week and they stated that without the influence of global warming there is an 80% chance that would have never occurred.

Along with these studies that are providing ground breaking data, comes the need and knowledge for evolving technology in this field. Stott and other reaserchers are combining weather forecasting skills with new, unique computer models to ultimately link certain weather events to climate change.

These findings are important, not only to inform people that excessive emissions is a life altering issue, but also that they are advancing  our understanding of environmental hazards. There is a strong and growing belief that increasing our knowledge of climate change's influence on weather is the key to predicting natural disasters. 

Stott and a select few others are working on projects that will eventually lead to the development of models that will be able to forecast natural disasters, much like meterologists forecast the weather on the morning news. With this comes many uncertainties and complexities in creating and translating these future predictions to the public. Although there has been giant steps made in this field, they are far from the ending stage of these models and fully understanding the connection between climate change and extreme weather events. It will be interesting to see the developments to come.


Below: This is an image from of Russia during its 2010 heat wave. The above average temperatures are shown in red and orange. 

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/extreme-measures-the-push-to-make-climate-research-relevant/

A Growing Glacier in the Rockies?!

For all those who think "global warming" is a hoax, the Rocky Mountains are on your side this winter. Although global warming is blamed for the disappearing of glaciers all over the world, looking at the continuing ice growth in the rocky mountain region makes you wonder if it is really that simple.

Its early November but there have already been multiple accumulating snow falls in the high country of the Rockies and Teton regions. The second snow storm in a week hit the Rockies today adding, in some places,  to the 2-3 feet of snow that stayed unyielding through this past summer. The high amount of accumulation from last winter was expected to melt in the spring causing troublesome flooding, but due to lower constant temperatures most of it stayed in its place among the mountains. 

New ice has been recorded in Glacier National Park and atop Colorado's Front Range mountains. The director of Bridger-Teton National Forest Avalanche Center, Bob Comey, has produced photographic evidence of the glacier growth. Photos were taken before the snow began this fall and already appear to show more ice in the Teton Range than was present two years ago. 

Although new ice layers are accumulating all over the western mountainous region this season, it isn't nearly enough to negate the large volume of melting that has occurred in the regions in recent years. But this phenomenon could help reverse or at least postpone some potentially severe hazards due to melting glaciers.


http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/2nd-storm-in-a-week-blankets-rockies-22405#loc=41/169/22405
http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/rockies-snow-glaciers_2011-11-02

The Himalayas are a Potential Danger Zone...

Glacier lakes are a growing potential hazard in the Himalayas and in other mountainous regions. Glaciers have always been a major cause of the formation of lakes but the issue with these newly forming bodies of water is they are being created at high altitudes. Due to the warming of the earth’s climate in recent years, the glaciers that have been residing upon mountain peaks have started to melt and break apart at an alarming rate. The runoff collects in pools which eventually form lake sized bodies of water at the top of mountains. These lakes have not caused any major damage just yet because they are still comfortably contained by their natural dams. As the morphology of the land continues to change over the next few years, either with more melting or other natural events, the lakes could drastically increase their chances of breeching their walls and flowing into the towns at the summit of these mountains.

Lake Imja, at 5,100 meters above the ground, is one such lake and it is the fastest growing glacier lake in Nepal. The local residents know of the growing lake, and were quick to notice its formation when it began only 3 years ago. Scientists have been coming in from around the world to view and do research on this alarming phenomenon but the local residents are rarely asked to be of help and published reports are usually conflicting. They are living in fear and confusion but remain in their community that lays in the path of this potential disaster.

If the waters ever overcome the moraine the lake currently resides in, the flow of water could spread mud and rock up to 100 kilometers and leave houses and fields with a layer of debris as thick as 15 meters. This would be devastating for the town of Dingbosche that sits at the summit and many towns like it.

Recently scientists have been utilizing the local community and their knowledge of the land and water to help with their research. These researchers have been using engineering technologies to study the rate at which this lake is growing and are attempting to predict in what ways the landscape with change over the next few years in an attempt to hypothesize when this hazard will become a full blown disaster.

With this information the local people will hopefully begin to be correctly informed on the glacier lake's changing morphology. If within the next few years the lake rises and/or the landscape containing the lake changes drastically they will have to decide what to do, and how to cater their lives to this ever growing hazard.

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/disaster-looms-as-himalayas-heat-up-20111014-1lp62.html

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/oct/10/glacier-lakes-melt-himalayas

Bangkok Evades Flood Waters

Following up - The flood waters that were predicted to hit the capital of Thailand with a furry were kept at bay by the walls constructed and the water aversion structures that did their job and kept the flooding to a minimum. This Sunday, as the water finally began to decrease, the sandbagging, underground tunnels, canals and dykes proved to have kept Bangkok safe under the highest flood waters. Bangkok was in a very vulnerable position in the flooding event as it lies next to the Chao Phraya river and is in the route of the receding flood waters making their way to the sea. 


Many feel as if the city isn't out of the dog house just yet. There is still high water in many provinces surrounding the city so if the engineering fails, flood waters could very well flow into the city.


Even though Bangkok seems to be escaping the damaging effects of the flooding, many provinces north of the Capital are under water. When all is said and done, the damage to the country is estimated to be around $3 billion dollars with approximately 300 fatalities. 

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Thailand-Bangkok-escapes-floods-as-waters-recede-2218328.php#next

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/Floods-Recede-North-of-Thailands-capital%20_2011-10-16

Flooding in Thailand

Proving again that the media doesn't give much limelight to floods, I just read an article about the almost 270 people that have been killed in Thailand since late July due to an array of tropical storms. This is the first I've heard of this still impending disaster. Currently the Capital of Thailand, Bangkok, is preparing its city for the worst flood in decades. So far this season the Capital city has managed to evade any major damage, but it is predicted that the water has saturated rice fields north of the city and the water will cut a direct path through Bangkok to the sea. There is also a predictably high ocean tide that will slow the progress of the runoff out of the city and into the ocean, causing the floods to stay for a longer period of time. On top of that tropical storm Nalgea, a storm I blogged about earlier that had caused devastation in the Philippines, is due to bring more rain in the next few days.

Obviously being the Capital city, Bangkok seems to be more vulnerable than many other provinces because it is the epicenter of the government and industry in Thailand. They are preparing evacuation plans just in case and stocking up on emergency food and water supplies.

On the engineering end of the rope the city is sandbagging the banks of the rivers and these walls seem to be doing the job for now. The city is looking into installing about 400 water pumps along the Chao Phraya River, that would help move the water from the city into the sea. They plan on digging 7 canals to also help the flow of water from Bangkok, these will be placed on the boundary of the city. Also the already constructed drainage tunnels under the city are predicted to be able to handle most of the flood waters.

Below: "Thai mahouts ride their elephants through the flooded streets in Ayutthaya, Thailand. Flooding in the central province has killed more than 260 people since late July. Source: Getty Images"

http://resources2.news.com.au/images/2011/10/11/1226163/592710-111011-thailand-floods.jpg


http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/bangkok-floods_2011-10-10
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/08/thailand-floods-2011_n_1001468.html

A small history and update of the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

On March 24, 1989 one of the greatest environmental disasters in recent history flowed into the pacific ocean. The Exxon Valdez oil tanker traveling from Valdez, Alaska to LA, California, ran aground on Bligh Reef neer Prince William Sound, Alaska. It is not uncommon to have to avoid large sheets of ice in those nearly arctic waters, and the giant oil tanker was outside of its normal route in an attempt to avoid a titanic fate. Instead of hitting the ice, the tanker ran into a reef which tore open the hull of the tanker and damaged 8 of the 11 tanks on board. Within 6 hours of the grouding the Exxon Valdez had succeded in spiling 10.9 gallons of crude oil in to the Prudhoe Bay and affecting over 1,100 miles of coast line.

Any place that an oil spill of this magnetude would have occured would cause immense damage, but it hit one of the most vulnerable places on earth. Alaska is home to many native speices that aren't found anywhere else in the world. Along with that, the wildlife is pretty much the main source of income for the majority of the population. Many species that were depleted are still at exponentiall lower numbers 20 years later. The wildlife living off the coast of alaska is so vulnerable because they have no where else to go. Even for those species that can survive on land their was no warning, no way around the spill. A rough estimate of the number dead was .5 million seabirds, 5,000 sea otters, and 300 or so harbour seals. The communities of fish took the biggest hit with billions of salmon and herring eggs and young fish that didn't survive. With the death of these young fish, a delayed effect was seen about four years later. The fish population plumeted in '93 when the juvenile fish should have been joining the adult populations, and contributing to the new generations numbers. This really hit the vulnerable fishing industry hard, and devestated the people who based their income in fishery. The herring population still hasn't come back, and this has a negative effect on the fragile ocean ecosystem and caused the closure of the herring fisheries.

Aid was dispatched and called in immediately following the devestationg. Not just people from Exxon, but the coast gaurd, locals, scientisits, and people from the national government. Although this was almost an unforgiveable occurance, they did employ all the people and techniques for clean up that they could.

Technologies went into building the Exxon Valdez tanker in order to prevent a disaster, and those were amplified in the wake of this event. Sciece again was relied on during the clean up of the spill. Marine Toxocolgist were utalized to help survey the damage, and they used their data to determine the extent of the damage in order to mitigate the rescure efforts. Now, more than 20 years later, they have sampled water near Prince William Sound, Alaska and have still found leathal concentrations that are readily availae to organisms.

In the end this was one of the most widespread natural disasters in recent history and is still negatively impacting people today. Looking at the big picture there lessons to be learned from this horrific event. Bridging the natural habitat of the ocean - locations of ice drifiting ice sheets, location of reefs, with the technology of today can prevent another spill. It would be extrememly smart to use staellites to survey shipping lanes and then warn ships of the proper routes to use to avoid ice AND reefs. This will help prevent another oil spill and the affects it has on society.

http://www.eoearth.org/article/Exxon_Valdez_oil_spill
http://www.democracynow.org/2009/3/24/20_years_after_exxon_valdez_oil
http://www.enewspf.com/latest-news/science-a-environmental/27597-exxon-valdez-oil-lingering-in-environment-feds-say.html

The Philippines have been tormented with two Typhoons in one short week. Early last week, amidst the rising sun on Tuesday morning, Typhoon Nesat slammed the Philippines’ main island, Luzon, and its capital Manila, with winds of up to 105 mph and a massive breadth of 400 miles in diameter! Enormous waves from Manila Bay crashed over the sea wall and encompassed wide areas of the capital city. Along with the obvious flooding causing thousands to be homeless, the storm caused power outages across the country with millions still without power late last week. Nesat also caused landslides and debris deposits that blocked roads across the region.

Alfredo Lim, the city mayor, has said that flooding like this is the first of its kind to occur in Manila, and the surrounding communities, which seems to be a contributing factor as to why most of the deaths occurred in this region. An estimated 52 people were taken by the storm. This could be an eye opener for the capital city to the precautions they need to be taking during the typhoon season that they may have been neglecting up until now.

No sooner had the country felt the smallest bit of healing from the rescue effort when typhoon Nalgea hit with no mercy 2 days ago on Saturday October 1. It spent 6 hours blowing its 121 mph winds around the Main Island that couldn't possible have had the capacity to take up more water. With this second round of flooding, the indirect effects of the storm will be emphasized. It will be even more essential, but much more difficult to get enough food and water supplies to those who are isolated due to blocked roads and continuous flooding. The most extreme cases have been families who were forced to spend days on their roofs to escape the flooding. Without sufficient distribution of food, water and health care the death toll will rise.

Through all of the devastation, loss of life, and loss of livelihood, there are definite lessons to be learned. Precautions towards this kind of storm and its disastrous aftermath should be taken underway and enforced even for areas that have never personally seen it.

Below - Even cargo trains are being put into use to help evacuate thousands and thousands of people.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15075149 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15141169
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-15086050